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Home Events 2052-A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

The Aurelio Peccei Lectures & Dialogues -
Enquiries on the Challenges of the 21st Century
84th Lecture

Wednesday 20 March 2013 from 12:00 to 14:30

2052-A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

by Jorgen Randers
Professor of climate strategy, Norwegian Business School, Oslo

Jorgen Randers (co-author of the original “Limits to Growth”) tries to answer the question what our world will look like in forty years time. The forecast 2052 dares to give highly educated guesses, combining data, modelling and hard science with an understanding of human nature and its systems and intuitions. Its findings are sufficiently unsettling and startling to start the debate about the need for fundamental change.

Humanity’s systems, which uphold “business-as usual” are very resilient towards real change. Rapid change does not happen until people’s patience caused by the negative consequences of “business-as-usual” (climate change effects, inequity, resource depletion) runs out. Society’s main institutions: democracy and economy are based on short-termism, resulting in a slow societal response to challenges, which need long-term solutions and investments. Humanity has a forty-year window to avoid the most serious negative consequences of its decades-long overconsumption splurge.

The lecture will be followed by a debate moderated by Tony Long, Executive Director, WWF EU Policy Office, and at 13:30 by an optional walking lunch.


University Foundation,
Egmontstraat 11 rue d’Egmont
B-1000 Brussels.
Doors open at 11:30. Lecture at 12:00 sharp.


Please find here for the presentation of the lecture.


Long version

in collaboration with :

The cycle of lectures is named after Aurelio Peccei (1908-1984), co-founder of The Club of Rome in 1968. An initiative of CoR-EU, in partnership with The Club of Rome International Centre and European Support Centre.

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